Nousevatko uusien energiaajoneuvojen hinnat vuonna 2022?
China Automobile Associationin tuoreimmat tilastot osoittavat, että tämän vuoden marraskuussa uusien energiakäyttöisten ajoneuvojen tuotanto oli 457,000 ja 450000, ja markkinaosuus oli 17,8 prosenttia. josta uusien energia - henkilöautojen markkinaosuus oli 19,5 prosenttia . Tammi-marraskuussa uusien energiaajoneuvojen tuotanto ja myynti olivat 3,023 miljoonaa ja 2,99 miljoonaa kappaletta, mikä on 1,7 kertaa enemmän kuin -vuoden -vuotta enemmän. Kiinan tiedeakatemian akateemikko Ouyang Minggao ennustaa, että uusien energiaajoneuvojen kotimaan myynti nousee tänä vuonna noin 3,3 miljoonaan ja ensi vuonna 5 miljoonaan.
While the production and sales of new energy vehicles have risen rapidly, subsidies have also accelerated. According to the "Notice on Improving Financial Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" jointly announced by the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries in April 2020, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10 percent and 20 percent respectively on the basis of the previous year. percent , 30 percent . Although the detailed rules for the subsidy decline in 2022 have not yet been issued, more and more car companies are preparing for the further decline of the subsidy.
Jotkut suositut{0}}myyntimallit ovat alkaneet nostaa hintoja
24. marraskuuta kotimaisten Tesla Model 3:n ja Model Y:n taka-veto-version hintaa nostettiin 4 752 juanilla 250 900 yuanista ja 276 000 yuanista 255 652 yuania ja 280 752 yuania. Toisin kuin aikaisemmissa raaka-ainekustannusten nousussa, tärkeä syy hinnannousuun on tukien lasku. On selvää, että Model 3:n ja Model Y:n nykyinen toimitusaika on vuoden 2022 ensimmäisellä neljänneksellä.
Sattumalta joulukuun 13. päivästä lähtien kolmen Xiaopeng Motorsin mallin auton osto-oikeuksia on vähennetty eriasteisesti. Niistä P7-auton ostooikeuspakettia on alennettu 5,000-10,000 yuania, P5:tä on alennettu 4,000 yuania, ja G3i:ta on alennettu 5 000 yuania. Nauti sitten 0 koron tai matalan koron menetelmästä. Alan sisäpiiriläiset uskovat, että toimitusketjun rajoitusten lisäksi tukien lasku on tärkeä syy Xiaopengille supistaa auton osto-oikeuksiaan.
Samaan aikaan tukien alenemisesta on tullut autoyhtiöille kikka kulutuksen lisäämiseksi. 7. joulukuuta FAW-Volkswagenin virallisesti julkaissut ID.4CROZZ- ja ID.6CROZZ-propagandajuliste kirjoitti: Lähtölaskenta kansallisen tuen laskuun, 1. tammikuuta 2022 alkaen, uutta energiavaltion tukea vähennetään 5 400 yuania!
It is worth noting that in the face of the delay in order delivery and the further decline of subsidies due to the upgrade of the production line, NIO adopted the strategy of "paying for itself". Weilai said that users who paid a deposit to buy ES8, ES6, and EC6 before December 31 this year and purchased the car on March 31, 2022 can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the national subsidy standard in 2021, that is, the vehicle standard. Models with battery packs (75kWh) and long-life battery packs (100kWh) can still enjoy subsidies of 16,200 yuan and 18,000 yuan respectively. At present, the delivery cycle of NIO is about 2 months, that is, for users who book cars before the end of the year, the delivery time of new cars is all in 2022. That is to say, the price difference arising from the subsidy decline in 2022 will be borne by NIO.
In addition, Nezha car sales staff also said that as long as the vehicle is ordered this year, even if the pick-up time is next year, you can still enjoy this year's subsidy policy.
"There is a high probability that there will be no significant increase"
Eri autoyhtiöillä on erilainen markkinaneuvotteluvoima. Johtaville autoyhtiöille pienellä hinnankorotuksella on vain vähän vaikutusta odotettuun myyntiin; nousuvaiheessa olevat autoyritykset mieluummin kantavat tappion kuin riskivät myynnin laskun. . Politiikassa määrätään, että uusien energiaajoneuvojen tukistandardia vuonna 2022 alennetaan 30 prosenttia vuoden 2021 perusteella, ja se on uusien energiaajoneuvojen viimeinen tukivuosi. Nostaako 30 prosentin voimakkuuden heikkeneminen siis suuren määrän uusia energiaajoneuvoja hintoja?
"At present (new energy vehicle) sales have basically entered the market-oriented track, and subsidies have little impact. Although there are no subsidies, non-subsidy policies such as double credits, carbon emissions, and travel restrictions will still be used. At the same time, with the rise in oil prices, fuel Compared with electric vehicles, the cost of using a car increases. Therefore, the impact of the subsidy decline will not be too great." Ouyang Minggao believes.
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher on new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, said that whether new energy vehicles will usher in a price hike in 2022 depends on the game of various factors. "The negatives include tight battery supply, no more mature new battery routes to replace, difficulty in large-scale recycling and utilization of existing lithium-ion battery raw materials, and declining subsidies. The increase in the price of points, the reduction of the cost of other parts by car companies, and the disguised increase of profits by car companies in after-sales or OTA (over-the-air download) upgrades can also absorb some of the price increase factors."
In addition, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, also made it clear that in 2022, the price of new energy vehicles "is unlikely to increase significantly."
Autoyhtiöt käynnistävät uuden testikierroksen
It is understood that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been implemented since 2009, and it has been 12 years. In 2019, subsidies fell sharply, which led to the reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, the reshaping of the pattern, the sharp drop in sales, and the elimination of some car companies that depended on subsidies to survive. At present, my country's new energy vehicles have made great strides from policy-driven to market-driven, and the market penetration rate has been increasing. With the substantial increase in the cruising range of power lithium-ion batteries, the gradual improvement of charging infrastructure, and the support of various local preferential policies, consumers have The acceptance of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher. Under this development trend, the decline or cancellation of subsidies for new energy vehicles will be inevitable.
In fact, even if the price of vehicles does not increase, the pressure on car companies is increasing. Problems such as chip shortages and skyrocketing battery raw material prices have plagued car companies. The superimposed subsidy decline may further compress the profit margins of car companies, and car companies with low sales will fall into a more difficult situation. Chen Qingtai, chairman of my country's Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, pointed out that although non-subsidy support is still available, for the market, next year will be a "hurdle", and car companies will usher in a new round of tests.
"After the subsidy is withdrawn, the relevant technical rules such as battery energy density, power consumption per 100 kilometers, etc. are no longer required, and even if the battery replacement subsidy is canceled, the cost-effective models that meet the needs of users will develop better, and the head aggregation situation will also improve. It is easier to form." Cao Guangping said.
